Watching the Weather

There are rare times when the drama of the high seas spreads all the way back to the "support" team members. On this leg, with Portia now 8 days from due, I find myself in that behind the scenes role. We watch the email, blogs and the phones for news. Talking through the satellites several times a day- we watch over the boat. The most important on shore role is watching the weather - or "wx".  Sea Dragon is able to get accurate real time wind, wave and pressure data over the Iridium in what are called "grib files". These compressed data files allow MaxSea to create a picture of forecast condition as far out as 16 days. On shore, however, we have much more data to work with thorugh the full internet. Our major sites are NOAA's Marine Weather Service (like on land but with different data), various satellite imagery sites, and one dedicated to sailors - Passage Weather. Through these sites we can watch several main information sources that give us a fairly good idea what is headed towards the boat.

I always start with the primary source, NOAA graphical forecast sources. Here are the graphical depictions of current and forecast weather out to 96 hours - 4 days. These are also the exact charts that are broadcast on radio-fax over the long-range HF radio. Possibly the most important of these charts is the Surface Forecast. This shows a set of contoured lines depicting air pressure gradients. Here is where we see the classic weatherman type images of the low and high pressure systems. As important as the systems themselves, are the gaps between them. Spacing between the lines translates into relative wind speed - tight spacing= steep gradients =higher winds.  These charts also give the expected wind speeds, and comments on the future development of the system. Right now, we have a significant system developing to the WSW of Sea Dragon (see the two surface forecasts above- these are the real thing). This is a powerful low that is rapidly intensifying (sometimes called a "bomb"). Within 48 hours, the team will have a hurricane force low pressure system approximately 700 miles to their north (38N). Wave heights in the core will exceed 14m (40'+) . Fortunately, they are holding south of 30 N and should not see more than 40kts and 5m waves. What you see in the two images are expected conditions at 0000Z GMT- or just about midnight London time. We watch these "extra-tropical" lows carefully because their route can change, and because they are simply very, very large storms.

You can also read the forecasters interpretation of the weather as a text narrative. The most recent "High Seas" text forecast for the area is as follows:

HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING
.LOW 37N60W 989 MB MOVING NE 30 KT AND RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING.
FROM 32N TO 39N BETWEEN 55W AND 63W WINDS 40 TO 55 KT. SEAS 12
TO 20 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 31N TO 42N BETWEEN 50W AND 74W WINDS 25
TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 TO 15 FT.
.06 HOUR FORECAST LOW 38N57W 976 MB. WITHIN 180 NM SW SEMICIRCLE
WINDS 55 TO 70 KT. SEAS 15 TO 25 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 41N46W 951 MB. WITHIN 180 NM W AND SW AND
240 NM S QUADRANTS WINDS 60 TO 75 KT. SEAS 22 TO 40 FT. ALSO
WITHIN 480 NM SE AND 300 NM NW SEMICIRCLES WINDS 45 TO 60 KT.
SEAS 20 TO 36 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 31N TO 49N E OF 66W WINDS 30 TO
45 KT. SEAS 12 TO 25 FT. HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS S QUADRANT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 46N41W 940 MB. WITHIN 360 NM S SEMICIRCLE
WINDS 50 TO 65 KT. SEAS 30 TO 48 FT. ALSO FROM 32N TO 60N E OF
54W WINDS 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 20 TO 38 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 31N TO
65N E OF 60W WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 TO 28 FT.

This is also a time when we appreciate Sea Dragon's heritage. These boats were built for this- designed to work through the worst sailing conditions on earth. Whether in the Southern Ocean on a race, or doing important research in the North Atlantic - the Sea is not your friend. We invest alot of engineering, systems, training and attitude up front so that conditions like this can be managed.Some would even say "enjoyed"...

Sea Dragon will be safe, but the team will have a rough several days ahead of them. Trawling will be difficult if not impossible for now. They key is to get them through this and in a position to use the final days productively. This should then position them just South of the Azores in time to reach north and into port. Watch the weather through these sites to understand the challenges the team faces. Never a dull moment...even back here in the "support role".

Ron Ritter